Indiana University Bloomington anthropologist
Eduardo Brondizio and Emilio Moran

A six-year study of Amazonian small farmers and their responses to climate change shows the farmers are vulnerable to natural catastrophes and risky land use practices, say Indiana University Bloomington anthropologists Eduardo Brondizio and Emilio Moran.

The researchers report in Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B (now accessible online) that an increase in climate anomalies like El Nino could ultimately drive many small farmers to ruin, forcing them into Brazilian cities that may be ill-equipped to employ, house, and feed them.

Climate variation would seem to favor the small farmer. Unlike large-scale farmers, most small farmers plant a wide variety of crops, so variation in rainfall one year might cause low yields of some crops, but leave others unaffected.

But small farmers are also limited. Not only are Amazonian small farmers less likely than corporate farmers to have access to current weather data and information about a coming drought, they also have less access to equipment that might protect crops from fire during times of unusual dryness or from flood during times of above-normal rainfall.

"They tend to do what they have always done," says Moran, "but that is a recipe for trouble under conditions of climate change, wherein extreme events will become more common. While some individuals adjust their practices relatively fast, it usually takes a generation to observe changes at the population level."

Moran and Brondizio found a rapid decay in farmers' memories even of major climate events. For example, more than 50 percent of the farmers surveyed in 2002 did not recall the El Nino-caused drought of 1997 and 1998 -- the worst drought in recent recorded history.

"Because there's so much [climate] variability -- even within a three-year period -- most farmers do not seem to maintain a memory of major weather events unless they had some unusual and specific relevance to their lives," says Brondizio. "High rates of family turnover in rural areas further limit the sharing of knowledge and experiences and forms of collective action to cope with challenging times.

"Farmers are aware of the climate change discussion," Brondizio continues. "But because climate data and forecasts are presented at a regional scale not applicable at the farm level, farmers prefer not to take the risk of changing land use practices."

To avoid the negative human and economic consequences of an even larger exodus of small farmers to the cities, Brondizio says regional and national governments must make an effort to help small farmers cope by producing and disseminating knowledge that is useful to them. He also says small farmers require better provision and access to services commonly available to large-scale farmers. Moran says the number of data-gathering weather stations must be increased.

"What is needed is to maintain roads and to provide appropriate technical assistance, health care, and other services to encourage these farmers to stay in the region," Brondizio says. "As far as climate change is concerned, the lack of extension services is a problem. Small farmers need people to translate climate information into information they can use to make decisions. We also know there is a need to generate more data about what's going on locally which may help local farmers predict something like drought or their risk of fire."

Funding for the study came principally from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), with additional funding from NASA and the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development. The authors also credit the staff of Brazil's Ministry of Agriculture in the state of Para for aid and support.